A mix of local, foreign and bot influence campaigns are underway
As a proud Canadian company, 996 Advisors has been closely monitoring the social conversation surrounding Trump’s statements about Canada potentially becoming the 51st state.
In the offline world, the reaction from Canadians has been fiercely against.
But online, and on X/Twitter in particular, we see a different mix, with early evidence points to three types of actors: real Canadians, Americans influencers, and bots battle it out, attempting to influence Canadians’ perceptions.
Our key take aways are:
1) There is some genuine Canadian support for the pro 51st state agenda,
especially in Alberta, and their movement has the potential to gain traction.
2) Canadians should be vigilant against fake accounts with unknown motivations attempting to sway them.
Important Questions and Themes
Our primary goal is to investigate who within Canada is leveraging social media to drive the pro-51st state agenda and how effective they are at influencing Canadian public opinion. Additionally, we will explore the themes and reasons resonating with Canadians for and against this proposal.
This article marks the beginning of a series, as long as the topic remains relevant. For our first exploration, we are diving deep into the Canadian conversation on X (formerly Twitter) from Nov 17, 2024 to Feb 18, 2025, where the largest share of the social conversation is happening.
Insights from X/Twitter
Three themes dominate the discourse on X:
Shock: Two-thirds of the post on X by Canadians are simply reacting to the idea, either by welcoming the concept or vehemently opposing. These posts do not specify why they have taken this position.
Trade: Over 90% of posts in this theme suggest that Trump’s push to make Canada the 51st state is to avoid economic disaster from his tariffs. Conversely, many Canadian posts view this as economic coercion, with a rise in calls to buy Canadian-made products.
Military and Taxes: The pro-51st state group highlights lower taxes and stronger military protection as key reasons to join the US. First mentioned by Trump, these concepts are resonating with pro-51st state advocates who are amplifying these messages.
What You Need to Know
General Sentiment: Canadians largely reject the idea of becoming the 51st state, but there is a group actively promoting it as beneficial. These are real Canadians who are enthusiastically supporting Trump’s proposal, and they are using X to promote their message. Some of these users are Alberta separatists and pre-date the Trump “51st State” comments.
Key Influencers: Right-wing media, Conservative politicians, and anti-government voices are driving the conversation. US influencers are amplifying Trump’s message, and their reach is so profound it is driving significant engagement in Canadian X. There is also evidence of sock puppet and/or bot farms activating specifically on the topic by positioning the 51st state under Trump as the solution to government corruption in Canada.
Caution: Companies should tread carefully on this highly polarized and fast-evolving topic, as it is difficult to assess its risk trajectory. Strong sentiment from both Canadian and US X users means making public statements for or against could be well received by some audiences, but trigger backlash from others. Researching how your most important stakeholders feel should be a first step towards a response strategy.
Monitoring: A Made in Canada/US boycott campaign is already underway, but it is fairly muted on X to date with less than 500 posts. Tracking its progress in terms of momentum and exposure for your industry and your brand is crucial for identifying reputation risk flags. We will explore this campaign on other channels and report back.
Stay tuned for more insights as we continue to explore this evolving conversation.
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