Canadians defiant in the face of Trump tariffs
The conversation around Canada potentially becoming the 51st state has been reignited by recent events. Trump's Congressional speech, Trudeau's response to tariffs, Homeland Security Director Kristi Noem's comments referring to Canada as the 51st state, and even Mike Myers' "elbows up" call on SNL have stirred strong reactions.
Trump's March 3 announcement of 25% tariffs on Canadian products, prompting retaliatory measures and strong words from Trudeau has reignited the "Buy Canadian/Boycott American" campaign, with Canadians expressing strong emotional responses.
Video's Role in the 51st State Discussion
Our analysis dives into the role of video platforms like TikTok and YouTube in this debate. Both channels are strong sources of discussion, but dwarf in size to Twitter/X in terms of volume.
Due to data limitations, we conducted a manual review of TikTok comments. We analyzed 1200 or 6.8% of the 18,000 comments on the top ten videos returned when searching the #51stState" topic, categorizing them into pro, anti, and neutral positions. While our methodology isn't scientific, it offers a glimpse into Canadian sentiments.
Key Takeaways
Traditional Media's Influence: In Canada, traditional news channels have been significant amplifiers of the 51st state discussion on video-first platforms like YouTube and TikTok. This suggests that traditional media still holds considerable sway driving cross-channel conversations thanks to Trump's messaging style which plays to TV's strengths.
Boycott American Campaign: The campaign is gaining momentum following Trump's tariff announcement. Home Depot captured close to 15% of the boycott tweets from Mar 3-4, 2025. Brands should monitor reputation risks and prepare crisis response strategies.
Insights from TikTok and YouTube
The conversation on video platforms mirrors what we've seen on other channels. On TikTok, we found a strong correlation between pro-51st state and Alberta, but we also saw support from BC to New Brunswick. Interestingly, while most Canadians TikTokers oppose joining the 51st state, some content gives the opposite impression.
Of the ten creator videos TikTok fed us, five were in support of Canada joining the 51st state, with over 40% of the comments on those TikToks agreeing with that position. There was only one creator who was clearly against with the rest taking a neutral stance. Of the over 1200 comments 996 advisors analyzed, 27% supported becoming the 51st state, 10.8% opposed it, and 61% were neutral or debated the pros and cons.
While this is a very small sample and the videos fed to our account could be based on many factors influencing TikTok’s algorithm, we can reasonably assess there are active communities reinforcing the belief that Trump and the 51st state is the right choice for Canada.
Video Channels Driving Engagement
Canadian news outlets and American late-night talk show hosts drive the highest reach and engagement on TikTok and YouTube, with over 50% of the share of voice. This suggests traditional media broadcasts are finding their place on new social channels, especially by leveraging Trump who knows how to make good TV.
What You Need to Know
Reputation Risk for Brands: Cross-border brands face higher reputation risks. Home Depot has already been targeted, and other brands may follow, especially if the boycott movement becomes organized, as it did very quickly at the start of the Israel/Hamas conflict.
Opportunity for Broadcasters: Trump's broadcast-focused communication strategy presents an opportunity for traditional broadcasters to stay relevant on new media channels. Creators stitch and share their content to drive views and engagement.
Trending Hashtag: #elbowsupcanada was trending yesterday. Deciding where to engage with this movement should only be taken once you know where your core audiences sit on the issue.
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