Canadian Election 2025 – A Tale of Two Electoral Parties

Who is the best beaver for the job?

A spate of recent news stories have alluded to internal tensions within the Conservative party as it grapples to adapt its strategy to the arrival of an aggressive Trump and the departure of Trudeau as Liberal leader.

As the first week of the official campaign concludes, it's crucial to evaluate which messages resonate with voters by analyzing responses on social and traditional media to see if the Liberals are on the right track and which way the Conservatives should pivot.

Conservative Campaign: Negative Tone and Focus on Mark Carney

The Conservatives have adopted a predominantly negative tone in their campaign dedicating almost half (44%) of their X content to critiquing Liberal Leader Mark Carney and his party. These attacks, including accusations of Carney being a ‘plagiarizer’ or ‘scared of the French Debate,’ have had mixed success.

Short-lived messages fade within 48 hours, while persistent narratives, such as being a ‘globalist’ and a ‘liar’ have gained traction on social media. This suggests the Conservatives have an opportunity to focus and build on what is already working rather than continuing to introduce new concepts and attacks that may not stick.

Chart of negative tweets about Mark Carney from March 24-30, 2025, categorized by themes like 'Globalist,' 'Liar,' and 'French Debate'.

A question the Poilievre campaign must also ask itself is if expending this much energy on what Carney did or did not do is worth sacrificing opportunities to highlight what Poilievre and a Conservative government can do to help Canadians weather what is coming.

Poilievre's "Canada First" branding is resonating well, though individual policy announcements lack lasting impact. Canadians are primarily concerned with protecting jobs and the economy from a trade war, an insight the Conservatives can leverage.

Moving forward, Poilievre’s campaign should focus on communicating solutions that address the main concerns of Canadians. With the election still in its early stages, he has the opportunity to shift from niche policy announcements to reinforcing his Canada First platform and demonstrating his capability to implement it.

Chart of tweets promoting Poilievre and the Conservative campaign's policies and slogans, March 24-30, 2025.

Liberal Campaign: Positive Tone and Focus on Defending Canada

The Liberal campaign, under Mark Carney, dedicates a smaller proportion of its messaging to attacking opponents, a strategy that aligns with its positive tone and appears effective, as evidenced by a 20% higher mention rate for Carney’s policies compared to Poilievre’s (based on X analytics, March 25-31, 2025). The Liberal messages that are working best emphasize defending Canada from Trump, both militarily and economically.

However, Carney encounters robust resistance on X, where each tweet about his promises or slogan attracts an average of two counterattacks, a ratio that has increased to three-to-one for policy-specific posts in the past week

The question remains if the attacks aiming to undermine Carney are strong enough to sway people from coming out to vote for him. The more he can use these next few weeks to prove them wrong in his capacity as Prime Minister, the better his chances.

Chart of tweets tracking Mark Carney and the Liberal Campaign's policies and slogans, March 24-30, 2025.

Social Media Dynamics in the Canadian Election: Conservative Bias and Traditional Media Influence

A 2021 PNAS study found that the mainstream political right enjoys higher algorithmic amplification than the mainstream political left on X. This could explain why Poilievre receives only 0.5 attacks for every campaign or policy tweet compared to Carney’s two to three attacks per tweet.  

Traditional news outlets, however, tell a better story for Carney. Both leaders' tariff policies receive coverage, but Carney secures 2-3 times more attention than Poilievre. This disparity highlights Carney’s advantage of being Prime Minster as he can leverage traditional news’ detailed reporting and editorial weight to amplify his platform. While X favors the Conservatives' immediacy, traditional media rewards the Liberals' emphasis on policy depth.

Volume of stories mentioning Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre in traditional media, March 24-30, 2025.

Strategic Focus for the Coming Weeks

As the campaign enters its second week, both parties should redirect their efforts from discrete policy proposals to the predominant voter concern: the economic and geopolitical threats posed by Donald Trump’s administration. Polling data from Leger (March 24-25, 2025) indicates that 36% of Canadians prioritize leadership on U.S. trade relations, and posts on X and traditional media on the topic has the highest post frequency, as per the data we shared above.

As election day approaches, Carney can demonstrate through action to reinforce what the polls suggest is the consensus - that he is the right person for the job. This means moving away from traditional campaign communications with a different announcement every day. His team needs discipline on the one message that matters right now – Carney is the best person to face Trump in a trade war.

In contrast, Poilievre needs to pivot his narrative away from why Carney is wrong for the job to why he is right for it. Niche platform announcements are not contributing to the story he needs to build from scratch—that he has the experience, knowledge, and capabilities to defend Canada in the coming years.